A United Ireland Referendum Must Not Turn Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Experts Caution

A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."